911 Carreras: Are they as cheap as they will get?
Added on: August 22, 2024
Author: OctoClub
1. Are 911 Carreras right now as cheap as they will ever get?
2. Price trends of the 992 Carrera 2 and Carrera 2 S
4. The impact of low production and rising MSRPs
5. Price trends for older generations
6. Market overview and future outlook
7. Conclusion
Are 911 Carreras right now as cheap as they will ever get?
A silly question given the current economic climate, right? But I am posing it anyway, and I have good reasons for it. Porsche Taycans, for example, are down by 40%. But there are also cars that saw prices decline after the pandemic price peak, only to stabilize during the last year.
Price trends of the 992 Carrera 2 and Carrera 2 S
Looking at the price trends per model year for the 992 Carrera 2 and Carrera 2 S, we see a typical pattern up to Q1 2023. Prices increased during the pandemic, topped mid-2022, and decreased. However, since Q1 2023, prices have hardly decreased. S models are down by 7.9% compared to last year, and base models by 7.3%. During the last nine months, Ss lost only 1% and base models 2.7%. These numbers are exceptionally low. The depreciation curve flattened significantly, and there are currently no signs that the depreciation rates will accelerate.
Prices are still close to MSRP. A Carrera 2 starts at $116k, and with a few options, the price can easily reach $140k or more. Low-mileage 2023 cars are listed at around $150k, which could be the same as their respective MSRP.
What drives the stability?
Why are 911s so strong while the rest of the market continues to decline? A recent Rennlist article speculates that Porsche is purposefully keeping inventory levels low to support prices, a strategy known to Ferrari buyers. Looking at the supply graph, we can see that after the release, the number of listed cars quickly fell to zero by early 2023. Supply for used cars increased steadily but has stabilized now. Moreover, the cars listed for sale sell quickly. In November 2023, only 6% of the certified 911 Carreras were listed for sale for longer than three months. This is an astonishingly low number and shows the high scarcity level in the 992 market, driving price stability in the last nine months.
The impact of low production and rising MSRPs
Porsche may have produced fewer cars than demand, potentially explaining these developments. Another reason could be the price increase for new cars. MSRP increases usually lift the used market as well. This trend doesn’t only affect the 992 market but also the broader 911 market, which has been exceptionally stable.
Price trends for older generations
The older generations, like the 997 and 996, also show interesting trends. The 997, despite some volatility, follows a similar pattern: a big increase during the pandemic, a top in early 2022, a correction, and relatively stable prices since then. Compared to one year ago, prices are down by an average of 6.1%. The 996 had an insanely strong run-up during the pandemic and only came down slightly after they topped. Prices have hardly changed since November 2021, and the decrease during the last year is minimal.
Market overview and future outlook
The US year-over-year price changes for almost all cars on my channel show that the average decrease during the last year was 8.4%, with most cars losing between 13.0% and 4.0%. The 911 Carreras, however, did better than this average. The 992s lost 7.6%, 991.2s 8.2%, 991.1s 7.3%, 997s 6.1%, and 996s 3%. This slight outperformance might not be surprising. Depreciation rates in the 992 and 991 markets are almost identical, which is unusual as traditional logic tells us that new cars depreciate more than old cars.
Conclusion
So, are 911s right now as cheap as they will ever get? In all likelihood, no. The price development during the last year shows that this market is incredibly strong. When it comes to the 991 and 992, we saw large price drops in the second half of 2022 but relatively stable prices throughout 2023. Instead of selling slower, cars are selling quicker again, and unsold inventory is discounted less than the same time last year.
Even with low production numbers and MSRP increases, it is unlikely that the trend will remain flat forever or turn upwards soon. The cars are simply too new for that, and we saw that 991s are approximately as expensive as before the pandemic. However, 991 and 992s did not follow the large decreases seen in some other models, and they might never come. Therefore, if you are in the market for this car, now is the time to monitor the situation closely.
Is the crash still coming? Or was the 2022 correction the largest decrease that we will see for a while? Based on the current data, it seems that the 991 and 992 market will follow normal depreciation patterns in the future. When it comes to older generations, especially the 996, we saw that it was almost immune to the market correction. Historical price behavior is no guarantee for future behavior, but it does contain information about the near-term future. A sudden crash in 996 values seems unlikely to me.
Inspired by the analysis of our friend @fourwheeltrader. Make sure you check his other videos https://www.youtube.com/@fourwheeltrader/featured.
Are you already a proud owner of a Porsche 911? If so, check out our selection of parts for this car at the following link:
